U.S. Office Investment Heat Check — Markets Attracting Capital

Capital Flow Signal

NYC (Midtown/Core)

CMBS office lending hit a multi‑year high in 2025, concentrated in well‑leased assets.

Investor focus: stabilized, high‑credit tenancy; Sixth/Park Aves, Times Sq, Penn submarket.

Usage Recovery

Miami

Office visitation ≈ 71.6% of 2019 levels (top of U.S.).

Absorption trend: largely positive since 2021; corporate in‑migrations continue.

Leasing Momentum

Nashville

Among post‑pandemic expansionary markets; recent 12‑mo net absorption positive.

Target: Music Row / CBD Class A with mid‑size floorplates.

Scale + Liquidity

Dallas–Fort Worth

Recent year posted positive absorption; deep buyer pool and lender comfort.

Plays: value‑add to stabilized Core+, 100–300k SF assets.

Office Visitation vs. 2019 (select markets)

Higher utilization = stronger bids

U.S. Average60.4%

Miami71.6%

Manhattan71.3%

Washington, D.C.66.3%

Nashville65.5%

Source benchmark: AY Office Busyness Index (May 2025 vs. May 2019). Higher busyness generally correlates with stronger leasing and bid depth.

U.S. Quick Read

LeadersFlight‑to‑quality is real: stabilized Class A/Trophy in core CBDs continue to draw the most capital.
MomentumUtilization recovery and positive absorption are concentrated in select Sunbelt and gateway submarkets.
SelectivityValue‑add works where leasing plans are credible and supply is thinning via conversions/demolitions.

Implication: nationwide, pursue stabilized/Core+ in leading metros and selective value‑add where tenancy and capex are well‑underwritten.

U.S. Office Overview — Q2 2025

Vacancy20.8% national vacancy at midyear; +20 bps QoQ, +90 bps YoY; the pace of increase is slowing.
Absorption Breadth35 markets posted positive absorption over the past four quarters as demand edges toward stabilization.
Supply ResetConversions/demolitions are shrinking supply: ~81 msf in the pipeline (≈1.9% of inventory) across 44 markets; first net supply contraction in ~25 years.
UtilizationU.S. office busyness is 60.4% of 2019 levels (May 2025), continuing a slow, steady climb.

Sources: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Office MarketBeat Q2 2025; CBRE Office Conversions & Demolitions (May 2025); WSJ analysis (2025); Avison Young Office Busyness Index (May 2025).

U.S. Industrial Overview — Q2 2025

AbsorptionNet absorption totaled ~29.6 msf in Q2 (≈Q1’s 30.3 msf), underscoring demand resilience.
VacancyNational vacancy spans ~7–9% depending on dataset; easing as deliveries taper.
RentsAverage asking rent reached $10.12 psf (+2.6% YoY); small-bay average ≈ $13.51 psf.
Leaders & Watch‑itemsDFW posted strong positive absorption; Inland Empire mixed with submarket divergence; Phoenix vacancy elevated but showing early stabilization.

Sources: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Industrial MarketBeat Q2 2025; C&W Industrial Q2 2025 release; Colliers U.S. Industrial Outlook Q2 2025; CommercialEdge National Industrial Report (May–June 2025).

Segments to Prioritize

Flight‑to‑Quality

Class A / Trophy in core CBDs

Dominates sales & loan originations; benefits from return‑to‑office mandates and constrained new supply.

Sunbelt Growth

Miami • Nashville • DFW • Austin • Las Vegas

Demographic & corporate in‑migration, improving absorption, resilient rent stories.

Selective Value‑Add

Reposition to Core+

Target well‑located B/B+ with clear capex plans and attainable leasing; conversions shrinking commodity supply.

Market Snapshots — Signals to Watch

Industrial

Dallas–Fort Worth

Q2 absorption ≈ 5.5 msf; vacancy ~8.8%; pipeline 15.4 msf.

CBRE Q2 2025 Industrial Figures; Partners Real Estate Q2 2025.

Industrial

Inland Empire

Vacancy ~7.9% overall; Q2 absorption negative (‑1.8 msf) but YTD positive (~1.6 msf).

Cushman & Wakefield MarketBeat Q2 2025.

Industrial

Phoenix

Vacancy ~12–13%; heavy new supply; signs of stabilization emerging.

C&W MarketBeat Q2 2025; Colliers Q2 2025.

Office

Miami

Four‑year run with just one negative quarter; Q1 2025 positive absorption (+3,299 sf).

Transwestern Miami Office Q1 2025.

Office

Nashville

Among top post‑pandemic expansion markets; positive 12‑mo absorption.

Transwestern U.S. Office Q1 2025.

Office

Manhattan (Core)

Utilization leaders; conversions/demos trimming supply; CBD sales volume up sharply YoY.

AY Busyness; CBRE Conversions; MSCI RCA CPPI.

Looking for stabilized or Core+ office nationwide?

I source, underwrite, and co‑broker nationwide across select U.S. markets — with Property iQ dashboards and investor lists ready to deploy.

Email Stephen Campaign Snippets

News & Market Signals (Recent)

Office supply contraction: Conversions & demolitions put U.S. office on pace for first net supply decline in ~25 years (policy and economics enabling deals). WSJ, CBRE.
Industrial dealmaking cools: Q2 warehouse transactions slowed amid trade-policy uncertainty and elevated availability; rents growing modestly. WSJ.
City finances feel the office slump: Major metros report tax impacts from lower office valuations and high vacancies. Washington Post.
CBD office transactions rebound: Sales volumes up ~80% YoY over the past four quarters despite price declines, widening bid‑ask matches. MSCI RCA.
Industrial normalization: National rents ~$10.12 psf (+2.6% YoY) with small‑bay premium; vacancy in high‑construction markets stabilizing as starts slow. C&W.

Public Sources Referenced

Financial Times (NYC CMBS/refinancing momentum, 2025)
Wall Street Journal (office conversions shrinking oversupply, 2025)
Avison Young — U.S. Office Q2 2025 (Busyness Index & capital markets)
Transwestern — U.S./Miami Office Q1 2025 (Absorption; expansionary markets)
Kidder Mathews — Orange County Office 2025 (Vacancy/absorption)
Voit & NAR — Flight‑to‑Quality dynamics
GlobeSt — Irvine Company portfolio performance

Note: Replace/add granular CoStar metrics per asset/submarket as needed for investor decks. This page is built for quick sharing and conversation‑starting.